The classic policy cycle stops at implementation and compliance-based evaluation. We add two sharp steps: designing the behaviour itself, and thinking through what that intervention causes elsewhere before it launches. Skip one of the four steps, and policy stays a document that doesn't touch reality.
1
Diagnose: which behaviour needs to change?
Start with what the target group does, not the problem as written on paper. Which behaviour needs to shift, and which capacity, norms and friction hold the current behaviour in place? Non-uptake rarely has a motivation problem as its cause. More often, the environment makes the current behaviour easier.
2
Design: make the intended behaviour the easiest choice.
You design the defaults, the form, the social norm and the delivery process itself so the intended behaviour costs less effort than the current one. Communicating comes last, not first.
3
Predict: trace it through to the second and third order.
This is the step most policy processes skip. What new behaviour does your intervention provoke? Does the target group shift to a different channel, a different scheme, a different part of the system? Map it in advance and you won't be caught out later.
4
Evaluate: measure behaviour, not paper compliance.
This is where it often goes wrong. An evaluation that only checks whether the scheme was implemented as planned measures nothing about its effect. Pick a behavioural indicator upfront, set a baseline, and check after a few months whether the behaviour actually shifted.
